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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 92

Cleveland Browns 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 64 yards to PHI 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 33-C.DeJean pushed ob at PHI 47 for 19 yards (39-K.Hudson).

The Three Options

GO -3.31 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.46 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 92, worth -5.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 50, worth -2.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model