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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 54

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to CLE 7, Center-49-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.94 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 54, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model