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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 34

Cleveland Browns 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 7-D.Hopkins 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.21 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model