4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 62

Cleveland Browns 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to PHI 18, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 31 for 13 yards (37-Da.Bell; 31-M.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.96 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 62, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 21, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model