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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 34

Cleveland Browns 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(4:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 85-D.Njoku to PHI 20 for 14 yards (27-Q.Mitchell; 32-R.Blankenship).

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.69 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 34, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model