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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 53

New York Giants 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 38-M.Haack punts 47 yards to CIN 6, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 15-C.Jones pushed ob at CIN 18 for 12 yards (59-C.Kreiter). PENALTY on CIN-45-M.Njongmeta, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at CIN 6.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.09 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 15, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model