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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 36

New York Giants 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(3:05) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 86-D.Slayton (20-D.Turner).

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.16 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model