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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
New York Giants
4th & 1 at the 35
New York Giants 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7
What Actually Happened
(7:29) 29-T.Tracy left tackle to CIN 30 for 5 yards (58-J.Ossai).
The Three Options
GO
+2.02 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.65 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.62 EP
KICK
+0.58 EP
- 71% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
- 29% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT
-0.01 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
