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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 55

New York Giants 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 38-M.Haack punts 43 yards to CIN 12, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.66 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -2.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model