4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 71

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 8-R.Rehkow punts 55 yards to NYG 16, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 17 for 1 yard (26-T.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.72 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 71, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 29, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model