Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 66

New York Jets 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

(6:24) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to MIN 22, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-19-I.Charles.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.61 EP
60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 66, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model