Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 75

New York Jets 10 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to MIN 27, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 4-B.Powell to MIN 25 for -2 yards (37-Q.Stiggers). PENALTY on MIN-15-D.Turner, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.00 EP
72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 75, worth -4.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model