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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 46

Minnesota Vikings 17 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 17-R.Wright punts 43 yards to NYJ 3, impetus ends at NYJ 1, Center-42-A.DePaola. 82-X.Gipson pushed ob at NYJ 3 for no gain (20-Jy.Ward, 42-A.DePaola).

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.46 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 13, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model