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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 26

New York Jets 0 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(8:49) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen up the middle to MIN 26 for no gain (15-D.Turner; 51-B.Cashman).

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.21 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model