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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 65

New York Jets 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to MIN 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.64 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 23, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP