4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 33

Minnesota Vikings 10 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:20) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 3-J.Addison.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.00 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model