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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 53

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to LV 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.97 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 53, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model