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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 86

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(:02) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to DEN 26, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 42 for 16 yards (84-H.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO -3.24 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.18 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 86, worth -5.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 44, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model