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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 66

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 33-J.Williams left tackle to DEN 42 for 8 yards (45-T.Eichenberg; 7-T.Moehrig).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.79 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 24, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model