Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 83

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Denver Broncos 10

(:34) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to DEN 36, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.21 EP
55% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 83, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model