Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 66

Denver Broncos 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

(1:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to LV 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 8-A.Abdullah.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.29 EP
70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model