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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 42

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to DEN 3, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-8-A.Abdullah.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.27 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP