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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 85

Denver Broncos 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to 50, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.43 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 85, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 43, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP