Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Denver Broncos 10

(7:12) 6-A.Cole punts 61 yards to DEN 7, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.03 EP
62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model