4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 67

Cleveland Browns 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 65 yards to WAS 2, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-38-T.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.55 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 25, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model