4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 14

Washington Commanders 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(3:29) (No Huddle) 30-A.Ekeler right end to CLE 4 for 10 yards (37-Da.Bell).

The Three Options

GO +2.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.26 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 14, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model