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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 95

Cleveland Browns 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to CLE 49, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-O.Zaccheaus to CLE 34 for 15 yards (31-M.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -3.33 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.19 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 95, worth -5.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -3.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 53, worth -3.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model