Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 80

Cleveland Browns 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 61 yards to WAS 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus. PENALTY on CLE-31-M.Ford, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 19.

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.55 EP
72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model