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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 13

Cleveland Browns 3 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 7-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Whiteheart, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.11 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 13, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.16 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model