Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 77

Cleveland Browns 3 – Washington Commanders 17

(1:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to WAS 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-O.Zaccheaus to WAS 38 for 18 yards (12-R.McLeod, 57-I.McGuire).

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +0.81 EP
70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model