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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Cleveland Browns
4th & 1 at the 47
Cleveland Browns 0 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(12:56) 27-D.Foreman left end to WAS 47 for no gain (4-F.Luvu).
The Three Options
GO
+0.92 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.77 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 47, worth -3.17 EP
KICK
-1.60 EP
- 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.02 EP
- 61% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.29 EP
PUNT
-0.88 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.88 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
