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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 19 at the 33

Cleveland Browns 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(13:13) 7-D.Hopkins 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.84 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model