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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 71

Buffalo Bills 3 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 8-S.Martin punts 38 yards to HOU 33, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.79 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model