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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 20 at the 20

Buffalo Bills 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.31 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 20, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model