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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 58

Buffalo Bills 17 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 8-S.Martin punts 56 yards to HOU 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 2-R.Woods to HOU 2 for no gain (46-J.Ingram).

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.40 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 58, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model