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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 68

Houston Texans 20 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 6-T.Townsend punts 33 yards to BUF 35, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.13 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 68, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 26, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model