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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 84

Houston Texans 14 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 6-T.Townsend punts 61 yards to BUF 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 28 for 5 yards (17-K.Boyd, 29-M.Stewart).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.48 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 84, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 42, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP