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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 63

Buffalo Bills 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:29) 8-S.Martin punts 55 yards to HOU 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.77 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 21, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP