Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 65

Buffalo Bills 3 – Houston Texans 14

(14:50) 8-S.Martin punts 63 yards to HOU 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 2-R.Woods pushed ob at HOU 19 for 17 yards (54-B.Spector; 44-J.Andreessen).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.54 EP
69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model