4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 7 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 12-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to SF 24, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds. Penalty on SF-51-R.Beal, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.69 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model