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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 16

Arizona Cardinals 21 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(1:40) 38-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +2.41 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model