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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 60

Arizona Cardinals 21 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(2:49) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-M.Harrison to SF 46 for 14 yards (22-I.Yiadom) [56-L.Floyd].

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.61 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model