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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 7

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(:01) 3-M.Wishnowsky 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-44-K.Juszczyk.

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.90 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 7, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model