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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 27

Arizona Cardinals 10 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 38-C.Ryland 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-J.Elliott), Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin, RECOVERED by SF-2-D.Lenoir at SF 39. 2-D.Lenoir for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.20 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model