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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 35

Tennessee Titans 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(14:21) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.15 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 45, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model