4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 55

Tennessee Titans 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 42 yards to MIA 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.22 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 55, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 16, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP