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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 4

Tennessee Titans 24 – Miami Dolphins 12

What Actually Happened

(:30) 60-D.Brunskill and 61-J.Ojukwu reported in as eligible. 20-T.Pollard right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.65 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 4, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +2.66 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model