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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 61

Miami Dolphins 6 – Tennessee Titans 19

What Actually Happened

(14:14) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right tackle to MIA 38 for -1 yards (53-E.Jones, 97-J.Lynch).

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.88 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model