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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 33

Tennessee Titans 16 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(:41) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.30 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model