Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 77

Miami Dolphins 6 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to TEN 26, Center-48-B.Ferguson. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 41 for 15 yards (45-D.Riley; 22-E.Campbell). PENALTY on MIA-33-S.Neal, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 41.

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.29 EP
74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model